Indonesia’s Worst Wildfires in 11 Years: Can the Country Break Its Cycle of Disasters?

As toxic haze spreads across Southeast Asia, a change in disaster leadership and allegations of corruption raise a larger question: Can Indonesia move from emergency response to long-term prevention?

A Nation Under Smoke

For millions of people in Indonesia, the latest wildfire emergency is no longer simply a story about burning forests.

It is about children unable to attend school, families breathing polluted air, disrupted flights, and communities wondering when the smoke will disappear.

Months of forest and peatland fires, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan, have produced one of Indonesia’s worst fire seasons since 2015. Severe El Niño conditions have intensified the drought, while human activities and degraded peatlands have made the fires harder to control.

Reuters reported on October 15 that more than 283,000 respiratory illness cases had been recorded across seven Indonesian provinces during the crisis. These are reported illness cases in affected areas, not individual diagnoses proving that every case was caused by wildfire smoke.

Estimates of land affected by the fires range from approximately 637,000 to 900,000 hectares, depending on the source and measurement method.

The haze has crossed national borders.

Malaysia has closed schools in affected areas, while Timor-Leste temporarily suspended in-person classes. On October 14, Singapore recorded its highest fine-particulate pollution reading of the year.

Indonesia has mobilized tens of thousands of personnel and aircraft to fight the fires. Nevertheless, the continuing smoke demonstrates how difficult this emergency has become.

1. A Disaster Indonesia Has Faced Before

Indonesia has experienced devastating fires in the past.

During the 2015 crisis, approximately 2.6 million hectares burned. The World Bank estimated the economic losses at US$16.1 billion, including damage to agriculture, forestry, transportation, health, and other sectors.

Eleven years later, Indonesia faces another major emergency.

The current burned-area estimates remain below the 2015 total, and the 2026 fire season is not yet over. Nevertheless, the recurrence raises an important question.

Why are severe fires still returning despite years of prevention efforts?

Part of the answer lies beneath the ground.

Peatlands are ecosystems rich in accumulated organic material. When they remain wet, they store large amounts of carbon and support valuable habitats.

But when peatlands are drained for land development or agriculture, they become highly vulnerable to fire.

Once ignited, peat can continue smouldering underground, making fires exceptionally difficult to extinguish.

El Niño can worsen dry conditions, but drought alone does not explain the crisis. Land clearing through burning, poor water management, and inadequate enforcement also contribute to recurring fire risks.

The consequences extend beyond human communities.

Wildfires have displaced endangered orangutans and damaged habitats across Borneo, forcing conservation groups to increase rescue operations.

2. A Leadership Change During the Emergency

The crisis has also coincided with major changes inside Indonesia’s disaster-management system.

On October 14, Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission, known as KPK, named five suspects in an investigation involving alleged misuse of emergency-response procurement funds at the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB).

The suspects included a brother of then-agency chief Suharyanto, along with people connected to the agency and private businesses.

The following day, President Prabowo Subianto appointed Lieutenant General Kristomei Sianturi as the new BNPB chief.

The government did not publicly explain the reason for the replacement.

Crucially, the investigation has not established that Suharyanto personally participated in the alleged wrongdoing, nor has the government confirmed that the personnel change resulted from the corruption case.

The allegations remain subject to the investigative and legal process.

The new chief has been tasked with accelerating the wildfire response and said he would assess the possibility of accepting international assistance.

The timing of the investigation highlights a broader governance issue: during a major disaster, public confidence depends not only on emergency operations but also on transparent management of public resources.

There is no verified basis for concluding that the alleged procurement wrongdoing directly caused the current wildfire emergency.

3. A Different Threat: Jakarta’s Recurring Floods

While Sumatra and Kalimantan struggle with fires, parts of Java face a different environmental problem.

North Jakarta and other vulnerable low-lying areas have long experienced repeated flooding associated with heavy rainfall, high tides, inadequate drainage, and land subsidence.

One particularly serious issue is excessive groundwater extraction.

When water is pumped from underground faster than aquifers can recover, the ground above can gradually sink.

The World Bank has identified groundwater overextraction as a major driver of land subsidence and growing flood exposure in Jakarta.

Rising sea levels and extreme rainfall can make the problem worse, but the city’s sinking land is an important risk in its own right.

Wildfires in Kalimantan and flooding in Jakarta do not share one simple cause.

However, both demonstrate how environmental degradation, infrastructure decisions, and long-term planning can influence the severity of natural hazards.

4. What Could Break the Cycle?

Indonesia does not lack proposed solutions.

Many have already been identified by government agencies, researchers, the World Bank, and ASEAN.

The challenge is consistent implementation.

Restore and protect peatlands. Rewetting degraded peatlands, managing drainage canals, and protecting remaining natural ecosystems can reduce the conditions that allow underground fires to spread.

Prevent illegal burning and strengthen accountability. Clear land-use rules, effective monitoring, transparent procurement, and consistent enforcement are essential. Prevention requires action before smoke becomes a national emergency.

Expand regional cooperation. ASEAN’s Peatland Management Strategy 2023–2030 and its broader efforts to reduce transboundary haze provide frameworks for coordinating prevention, monitoring, and sustainable land management.

Address the causes of urban flooding. In Jakarta, stronger drainage and coastal protection are important, but so are expanding reliable piped-water supplies and reducing excessive groundwater extraction.

These strategies are not instant solutions. Peatland restoration takes time, land-use enforcement can be difficult, and changing a major city’s water infrastructure requires long-term investment.

But they offer a more durable direction than relying on firefighting operations and temporary flood defenses alone.

5. The Real Test Comes Before the Next Disaster

Indonesia’s immediate priority is to protect people, restore safe air quality, and bring the fires under control.

But once the smoke clears, a larger question will remain.

Will damaged peatlands be restored? Will land-use violations be prevented? Will disaster funds be managed transparently? Will vulnerable cities reduce the risks that turn heavy rain and high tides into emergencies?

These are not problems that one new agency chief or one emergency operation can solve.

They require sustained public investment, effective institutions, regional cooperation, and policies that continue long after the headlines disappear.

Indonesia has faced devastating fires before. It has also lived with recurring floods for decades.

The real test is not how quickly the country responds to the next disaster. It is whether it can prevent familiar hazards from becoming national emergencies again.